Lets say we had a coin-flipping contest; we flip a coin 100 times, whoever correctly calls their flips the most number of times wins. Simple math tells us that this contest is comprised purely of chance, with everyone having a 50% chance of getting it right on each flip.
Frankly, winning and losing is completely out of our control. However, we will all have a strategy of how we will go about making these calls. Some of us may believe that our strategy makes a difference, maybe due to superstition or a lack of statistical understanding, while others would have a strategy merely for entertainment or to pass the time (i.e. you have to pick something). Regardless, at the end of it all there would be a winner, in that someone guessed the most flips correctly.
If you asked this winner what his/her strategy was, he/she could tell you about their journey to becoming champion…but did their strategy really make a difference?
No, because we know that it was never really under their control. But somebody had to win, right? Focusing on this winner is known as Success Bias, which is defined as the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "succeeded" some process while overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility.
The point is that so much of sports, and life, comes down to chance. In sport we like to hear what champions did to get there; and yes much of their success was earned through their hard work, but chance plays a factor too. The winners aren’t the only ones who worked hard; they are just the ones we hear about. Genetics plays a factor as well. Ask Yao Ming what he did all his life before he stood at a height of 7ft.6in., and he could tell you all about it, but did it really make a difference in his height?
Athletes come to metaphorical forks in the road all too often, where they must make a decision based purely on chance. Some athletes will choose correctly, some will not. Does it mean that those who chose correctly knew something the rest of them did not? Absolutely not, but none-the-less that athlete made it. So is that athlete’s lucky strategy any better? Again, absolutely not! But for some reason we choose to blindly follow their advice anyways. As if because the coin-flip was heads this time, it’s more likely to be tails next time.
Anecdotes can be dangerous information. Being an elite athlete (or at an elite level of anything) alone does not make an expert of a field of study. It makes an expert in how this one specific person got there, and that may help others get there, or it may not. This one person’s path might not be the right path for others. Understanding the strength and conditioning literature is what makes a strength and condition expert. Understanding nutrition literature is what makes a nutrition expert. This applies to any field. So instead of blindly following those who made it to the top before us, carefully focus on what you can actually control, training and nutrition (not genetics or luck), by listening to those who are truly educated on the subject.
If you asked this winner what his/her strategy was, he/she could tell you about their journey to becoming champion…but did their strategy really make a difference?
No, because we know that it was never really under their control. But somebody had to win, right? Focusing on this winner is known as Success Bias, which is defined as the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "succeeded" some process while overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility.
The point is that so much of sports, and life, comes down to chance. In sport we like to hear what champions did to get there; and yes much of their success was earned through their hard work, but chance plays a factor too. The winners aren’t the only ones who worked hard; they are just the ones we hear about. Genetics plays a factor as well. Ask Yao Ming what he did all his life before he stood at a height of 7ft.6in., and he could tell you all about it, but did it really make a difference in his height?
Athletes come to metaphorical forks in the road all too often, where they must make a decision based purely on chance. Some athletes will choose correctly, some will not. Does it mean that those who chose correctly knew something the rest of them did not? Absolutely not, but none-the-less that athlete made it. So is that athlete’s lucky strategy any better? Again, absolutely not! But for some reason we choose to blindly follow their advice anyways. As if because the coin-flip was heads this time, it’s more likely to be tails next time.
Anecdotes can be dangerous information. Being an elite athlete (or at an elite level of anything) alone does not make an expert of a field of study. It makes an expert in how this one specific person got there, and that may help others get there, or it may not. This one person’s path might not be the right path for others. Understanding the strength and conditioning literature is what makes a strength and condition expert. Understanding nutrition literature is what makes a nutrition expert. This applies to any field. So instead of blindly following those who made it to the top before us, carefully focus on what you can actually control, training and nutrition (not genetics or luck), by listening to those who are truly educated on the subject.